Post-doctoral fellow in climate modelling of volcanic super-eruptions and epidemics

Subject Description
Climate variability and abrupt climate perturbations can have profound consequences for ecosystems, agriculture, human populations and infectious disease. Large volcanic eruptions provide a natural example of such perturbations. Volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere reduce incoming solar radiation and cause substantial climate cooling over periods of several years.

Historical evidence suggests that some major volcanic eruptions have coincided with famine, social disruption and epidemic disease, including the Plague of Justinian in the sixth century. However, the mechanisms linking volcanic eruptions, climate change and epidemics remain uncertain. Possible mechanisms include climate impacts on agricultural productivity and human livelihoods, as well as climate-driven changes in animal reservoirs and vectors of infectious disease.

This two-year position is part of the six-year international research project, namely “Climate Cooling from Volcanic Super-eruptions and European Epidemics during Preindustrial Times”, involving researchers in Sweden and France. The project will investigate how abrupt climate changes associated with major volcanic eruptions may have influenced epidemics and pandemics, with particular focus on the Plague of Justinian, which followed the major volcanic eruptions of AD 536 and 540.

The project brings together expertise in meteorology, climate modelling, geology, archaeology, history, medicine, biology and mathematical modelling. A central aim is to develop a new modelling framework in which an epidemiological/ecological model is driven by climate simulations and evaluated against historical and archaeological evidence.

The overarching objective of the project is to advance understanding of how epidemics depend on climate-sensitive ecology and demographics, thereby improving our ability to anticipate and respond to future epidemics arising from a wide range of causes.

The Position
We are seeking a postdoctoral fellow for two years to investigate the volcanic eruption–climate component of the project and its integration with epidemiological modelling.

The postdoctoral fellow will work within the atmospheric and climate modelling team at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lund University. The initial work will involve developing and running an offline climate-modelling testbed based on a single-column version of a global climate model, which will be forced by global runs with the full coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The testbed will be used to investigate the climate response to historical volcanic eruptions at selected geographical locations, initially focusing on the AD 536/540 eruption case.

The resulting climate simulations will be compared with available historical and palaeoclimate observations and will provide climate information for the epidemiological/ecological modelling undertaken by project partners. Available observations, including volcanic sulphate deposition recorded in ice cores, will be used to constrain the timing, magnitude and duration of the prescribed volcanic aerosol forcing. Focus will be given to compiling a dataset of palaeoclimate observations with which to constrain and validate ensemble simulations by the global model for the mid-6th century for N Europe (e.g. e.g. isotope data and other data from speleothems, ice cores, tree-ring series, and pollen data). The work will subsequently contribute to global climate simulations and analysis of possible climate–epidemic mechanisms.

The position offers an opportunity to work at the interface between climate modelling, computational geoscience and infectious-disease modelling within a highly interdisciplinary international research project.

Work Duties
The main duties are to conduct research within the project. No teaching is planned for this position.

The work will include:

• compiling a palaeoclimate observational dataset, with a focus on surface temperature, and using it to constrain simulations of the mid-sixth-century climate;
• developing and running a single-column version of the global climate model as an offline testbed for the project's human-ecology epidemiological model, including its demographic components;
• conducting climate simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing for the AD 536/540 eruption case, using both the single-column model and the fully coupled ocean-atmosphere global model;
• analysing model results and comparing simulated climate conditions with historical and palaeoclimate observations;
• collaborating with researchers developing the epidemiological model and with colleagues working on ecology, archaeology and history;
• and contributing to scientific publications, presentations and the development of subsequent global simulations within the project.

The work will involve scientific programming in a Linux environment, particularly Fortran 90, together with substantial numerical modelling and analysis of climate-model output.

Qualification Requirements
Appointment to a postdoctoral fellow position requires that the applicant has a PhD, or an international degree deemed equivalent to a PhD, within a subject relevant to the position. The doctoral degree must normally have been completed no more than three years before the date of the employment decision. Under special circumstances, the doctoral degree may have been completed earlier.

Applicants must have:

• a PhD in meteorology, atmospheric science, climate science, physics, applied mathematics, or an equivalent subject relevant to the position;
• documented experience of numerical modelling and scientific computing;
• programming experience in a Linux environment, in a commonly used programming language such as Python, C or Fortran;
• good knowledge of mathematics and numerical methods;
• good knowledge of physical meteorology, atmospheric science and/or climate science; and
• oral and written proficiency in English.

Assessment criteria and other qualifications
This is a career-development position involving research only. The position is intended as an initial step in an academic research career, and assessment will primarily be based on the applicant's research qualifications and potential to conduct high-quality research.

Experience with global or regional climate models, high-performance computing, analysis of climate datasets, or modelling of past climates is advantageous.

Experience of interdisciplinary research, particularly involving palaeoclimate and epidemiology, is also advantageous.

Documented knowledge or experience in differential equations, numerical methods, atmospheric and climate modelling, Fortran 90 and Linux-based computational environments is particularly desirable.

Particular consideration will be given to:

• the quality and relevance of the applicant's previous research;
• ability to develop and conduct numerical modelling research;
• experience with scientific programming and computational modelling;
• knowledge of atmospheric physics, palaeoclimates, meteorology and climate modelling;
• ability to analyse and interpret numerical model output; and
• ability to work effectively in an interdisciplinary and international research team.

Good collaborative skills, scientific curiosity and the ability to work across disciplinary boundaries will also be considered.

Research Environment
The successful candidate will join an interdisciplinary international project involving researchers in Sweden and France and will work closely with researchers in atmospheric modelling, geology, epidemiology, ecology, archaeology and history.

The postdoctoral fellow will be based at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Lund University and will be part of an active research environment in atmospheric and climate science. The position provides an opportunity to develop expertise in climate modelling and computational methods while contributing to a broader research programme investigating interactions between climate, ecosystems and infectious disease.

Terms of employment
This is a full-time, fixed-term employment with a duration of two years. The period of employment is determined in accordance with the agreement “Avtal om tidsbegränsad anställning som postdoktor” (“Agreement on fixed-term employment as a post-doctoral fellow”) between Lund University, SACO-S and OFR/S, dated 1st February 2022.

Preferred starting date: as soon as possible according to agreement, no later than May 1st 2027.

First round of interviews are expected to be held 14-18 December 2026.

Instructions on how to apply

Applications shall be written in English and be compiled into a PDF-file containing:

• résumé/CV, including a list of publications,
• a general description of past research and future research interests (no more than three pages),
• contact information of at least two references,
• copy of the doctoral degree certificate, and other certificates/grades that you wish to be considered.